The ECB decision is on the calendar, the consensus is known, and the market has priced a path for the next several meetings. None of that tells you which way EUR/USD moves at 13:15 CET. What you can do is prepare so that whichever way it goes, you already know what you will do.
The checklist
- What is priced? Check money-market pricing for this meeting and the next two. The surprise is measured against that, not against the headline.
- Where is the pair relative to the 20-day range? At the edge of a range, a surprise travels further.
- Where are the obvious stops? Above the recent high and below the recent low. The first move often hunts them.
- What is the dollar doing? EUR/USD is as much a dollar trade as a euro trade. Check DXY and US yields.
- Is there US data in the same window? Overlapping releases make the first candle unreadable.
- What is my maximum size for the event? Half of normal is a sensible default while spreads are wide.
- Where is my invalidation? Written down before the release, not decided during it.
- Will I trade the statement or the press conference? The second move, forty-five minutes later, is often the cleaner one.
The pattern worth knowing
A sharp move in the first minute that reverses before the press conference is common enough to have a name among rates traders: the fade. It happens when the statement looks hawkish or dovish on the headline but the guidance walks it back. Waiting for the first fifteen-minute candle to close costs a little edge and saves a lot of stop-outs.
Use the live chart to mark the range and the calendar page to confirm the exact release time in your time zone.